Trading Outlook: Market Enters Low Volume and Volatility Phase as Hayes Bets on BTC Reaching $110K

·

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a critical phase marked by shrinking trading volumes and declining volatility. While Bitcoin (BTC) ended last week on a positive note near $86,000, broader sentiment remains divided. As major players like Arthur Hayes forecast a potential surge to $110,000, traders are closely watching key resistance levels and macroeconomic indicators that could shape the next major move.

Market Dynamics: BNB, ETH, and BTC in Focus

The battle for on-chain dominance continues between the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) and Solana ecosystems. BSC has gained momentum with CZ actively promoting ecosystem projects. Recently, APX Finance saw a sharp uptick after users began leveraging BNB to go long on the meme coin mubarak. This move triggered significant price gains for both APX and mubarak. Notably, Wintermute may now be acting as the market maker for mubarak, having withdrawn over 6 million tokens from Gate.io in just four days — a sign of growing institutional interest in niche assets.

On the flip side, Solana isn’t staying idle. After a period of dormancy, Moonshot quietly launched three new meme tokens: TITCOIN, FAT, and ROUTINE. Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s public endorsement of TRUMP token — followed by his criticism of its artwork — sparked the creation of a new Solana-based token named Downald, which briefly reached a market cap of $14.5 million.

👉 Discover how emerging blockchain ecosystems are shaping the next wave of digital asset opportunities.

Bitcoin closed the week above $86,000, but analyst opinions remain split. Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, highlights $85,000 as a crucial psychological threshold. Failure to sustain closing prices above this level could trigger downward pressure in the coming week. In contrast, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, maintains a contrarian "rise before fall" outlook, predicting BTC will climb to $110,000 before correcting down to $76,500.

Eugene, a seasoned trader, suggests the market has entered its fifth stage — characterized by losing long positions, price consolidation, and shrinking volume and volatility. He notes that while stronger altcoins may have already bottomed out, it's still unclear whether most assets have reached their lows.

Regulatory and Macroeconomic Signals

Regulatory developments are adding another layer of complexity. Senator Cynthia Lummis’ proposed 2025 Bitcoin Bill calls for the U.S. government to acquire 1 million BTC within five years — roughly 5% of the total supply. This bold initiative could significantly influence long-term demand dynamics if enacted.

Additionally, the upcoming SEC chair confirmation hearing on Thursday may touch on crypto policy, drawing attention from investors. According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Digital Asset Research Director, Bloomberg Law analysts estimate a 30% chance that the federal government will begin purchasing Bitcoin this year.

Macroeconomic data remains pivotal. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev emphasizes that consumer confidence, Q4 GDP, initial jobless claims, and the upcoming PCE inflation report will be key inputs for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision framework. The Fed’s March 18–19 meeting signaled tolerance for short-term inflation spikes, laying the groundwork for potential rate cuts later this year.

Nicolai Sondergaard, Research Analyst at Nansen, warns that global tariff tensions could persistently pressure markets until resolutions emerge between April and July.

Key Metrics Snapshot (as of March 24, 13:30 HKT)

ETF flows as of March 21 (EST):

This data underscores sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin despite sideways price action.

Upcoming Catalysts and Ecosystem Developments

Several high-potential events are on the horizon:

Additionally:

👉 Stay ahead of major crypto launches and ecosystem upgrades with real-time insights.

Core Keywords

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), BNB, market volatility, ETF flows, macroeconomic indicators, altcoin season, regulatory developments

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is Bitcoin likely to reach $110,000 as Hayes predicts?
A: While Arthur Hayes’ $110K forecast is optimistic, it hinges on increased institutional adoption and favorable macro conditions. A breakout above $85K with strong volume would strengthen this thesis.

Q: What does low market volatility indicate for traders?
A: Declining volatility often precedes major price movements. Traders should prepare for potential breakouts or breakdowns once volume returns, especially around key economic releases.

Q: Are meme coins like mubarak sustainable investments?
A: Meme coins carry high risk due to speculative nature and lack of fundamentals. However, projects with backing from market makers like Wintermute may see extended trading life cycles.

Q: How do ETF flows impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: Consistent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs signal growing institutional demand, which can support prices over time even during periods of low retail activity.

Q: Which altcoins show early signs of recovery?
A: AI and DePIN sectors are outperforming with gains over 4.5%. Tokens like Ankr and StormX have shown strong momentum, suggesting selective strength amid broader consolidation.

Q: Could U.S. government Bitcoin purchases become reality?
A: Though still speculative, Senator Lummis’ bill reflects growing political support. Even symbolic purchases could boost market confidence long-term.

👉 Explore how regulatory shifts and ETF trends are redefining digital asset investing.

Final Thoughts

The crypto market stands at an inflection point. With volumes drying up and volatility compressing, the stage may be set for a decisive move — either upward or downward. While Bitcoin consolidates near $87K, eyes are on both technical levels and macro triggers like PCE data and Fed policy cues.

Arthur Hayes’ bullish call to $110K remains a compelling narrative, especially if ETF demand persists and regulatory clarity improves. Meanwhile, ecosystem innovations on BNB Chain and Solana continue fueling speculative activity in altcoins and memes.

For investors, patience and precision are key. Monitoring on-chain activity, ETF flows, and macroeconomic signals will be essential in navigating this transitional phase. As history shows, the calm before the storm often presents the best opportunities for informed participants.

Word count: 1,128