The crypto market remains in a state of cautious observation as altcoins continue to struggle against Bitcoin’s dominance. Despite periodic rallies and bursts of optimism, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao—commonly known as CZ—has cast doubt on the arrival of the much-anticipated Altseason. With most alternative cryptocurrencies still underperforming, market participants are debating whether the worst is behind us or if further consolidation lies ahead.
What Defines an Altseason?
An Altseason refers to a phase in the cryptocurrency market cycle when investors shift capital from Bitcoin into alternative coins (altcoins), driving rapid price increases across a broad spectrum of non-BTC digital assets. Historically, these periods follow major Bitcoin rallies and are characterized by heightened speculation, increased trading volume in altcoins, and widespread investor enthusiasm.
To quantify this phenomenon, CoinMarketCap (CMC) introduced the Altcoin Season Index, a real-time metric that evaluates whether the market is currently experiencing an Altseason. The index tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins over the past 90 days relative to Bitcoin.
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According to CMC’s criteria, an Altseason is confirmed only when 75 out of the top 100 altcoins outperform Bitcoin during that period. As of now, the index shows a mere 14/100, indicating that just 14 altcoins have managed to beat BTC in price growth since early December—a far cry from the conditions needed for a full-blown Altseason.
CZ Questions the Threshold
CZ responded to growing speculation about an imminent Altseason by highlighting the current data on CMC. He acknowledged the strictness of the 75% benchmark, suggesting that even 50 out of 100 would represent a healthy altcoin market.
"This is a tough ranking system," CZ commented, emphasizing that while some altcoins are showing strength, the broader ecosystem hasn’t seen the kind of coordinated breakout typically associated with an Altseason.
Among the few outperforming assets are Monero (XMR), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Pi (PI), Mantra (OM), Berachain (BERA), and the unofficial Trump-themed memecoin TRUMP. These exceptions, however, remain outliers in a sea of red.
Broad Altcoin Weakness Persists
Despite occasional green candles and short-term rallies, most major altcoins have posted significant losses over the last quarter. High-profile projects like SUI and Solana (SOL)—once seen as leaders in the 2024 narrative—have seen their prices drop between 37% and 41% in the past 90 days.
Memecoins, which fueled explosive gains earlier in the cycle, have been hit even harder. Tokens like dogwifhat (WIF), PEPE, FLOKI, and BONK have lost between 70% and 80% of their value, underscoring the volatility and speculative nature of this segment.
Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe offered a sobering perspective: “Massive green day on some Altcoins, they are up 2%! Then, you zoom out, and you zoom out, and you zoom out.” His point? Short-term bounces can create illusions of recovery, but longer timeframes tell a different story—one of sustained pressure and declining momentum.
Is the Bottom In Sight?
While current data paints a bleak picture, some analysts believe the market may be nearing a bottom. Crypto influencer Altcoin Sherpa noted that the current retracement mirrors conditions seen in summer 2024, a period also marked by pessimism—yet followed by strong rebounds in August.
However, he cautioned that unlike last year, there’s no clear catalyst on the horizon—such as political momentum or macro-level interventions—to ignite a broad rally. Specifically referencing the so-called “Trump Pump,” Sherpa pointed out that recent excitement around former U.S. President Donald Trump’s support for crypto did provide a temporary boost.
In early March, Trump announced plans for a strategic digital asset reserve that would include SOL, XRP, ADA, ETH, and BTC. This sparked a brief surge in those assets. But White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks later clarified that these were illustrative examples rather than official inclusions in any government-backed reserve.
Still, Sherpa believes the market is close to bottoming out. “We still probably have the chop period to get through,” he said, referring to the sideways, indecisive trading patterns often seen before major trend reversals.
A Different Kind of Altseason?
Not all voices agree that we’re waiting for Altseason to begin. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, argues that Altseason has already started—but it looks nothing like previous cycles.
Ju challenges the traditional view that Altseason begins when Bitcoin dominance declines and capital rotates into altcoins. Instead, he asserts that trading volume is now the defining metric. According to him, rising volume in altcoin markets—even without a drop in BTC dominance—signals renewed investor interest.
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He also warns that this cycle’s Altseason will be highly selective. Only altcoins with strong fundamentals, compelling narratives (like AI integration, decentralized finance innovation, or real-world asset tokenization), and active development communities are likely to thrive. The era of broad-based pumps may be over.
Key Takeaways for Investors
As the market navigates this uncertain phase, several insights emerge:
- Patience is critical: With only 14% of top altcoins outperforming BTC, conditions for a widespread rally aren’t yet met.
- Focus on quality: In a selective cycle, projects with real use cases and strong ecosystems will lead any recovery.
- Watch volume trends: Following Ju’s thesis, rising altcoin trading volume could be an early signal of institutional or retail re-engagement.
- Avoid FOMO: Short-term price spikes don’t necessarily indicate structural strength—always analyze long-term charts.
FAQ: Understanding Altseason and Market Dynamics
Q: What exactly is Altseason?
A: Altseason is a market phase where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin, driven by increased investment, speculation, and momentum across non-BTC cryptocurrencies.
Q: How is the Altcoin Season Index calculated?
A: It measures how many of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. A reading of 75 or higher indicates Altseason conditions.
Q: Why aren’t SUI and SOL leading this cycle?
A: Despite strong fundamentals and ecosystem growth, both have faced macro headwinds, profit-taking after earlier rallies, and reduced speculative interest amid broader market caution.
Q: Can Altseason happen even if Bitcoin keeps rising?
A: Yes. As Ki Young Ju suggests, rising altcoin trading volume—even during periods of high BTC dominance—can indicate early-stage Altseason dynamics.
Q: Are memecoins dead for this cycle?
A: While severely corrected, memecoins often re-emerge late in bull cycles. However, their survival depends on community engagement and viral narratives rather than fundamentals.
Q: Should I buy altcoins now?
A: Consider dollar-cost averaging into high-conviction projects with solid teams and roadmaps. Avoid chasing pumps; focus on long-term potential.
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Final Thoughts
The debate over whether Altseason has begun reflects deeper shifts in market structure and investor behavior. While CZ’s skepticism is grounded in hard performance data, Ju’s alternative framework suggests we may already be in a new kind of alt-driven phase—one defined not by breadth but by selectivity and volume.
For traders and investors alike, adaptability is key. Monitoring metrics like the CMC Altcoin Season Index, on-chain volume flows, and macro catalysts will help separate noise from opportunity. Whether we’re at the end of a drawdown or still mid-cycle remains to be seen—but preparation ensures readiness for whatever comes next.