Bitcoin (BTC) is once again capturing the attention of traders and investors as key technical indicators suggest a potential resurgence in bullish momentum. Recent price action and chart patterns are drawing striking comparisons to the market behavior observed in late 2024—just before BTC surged from $70,000 to an all-time high of $109,000. While past performance is never a guaranteed predictor of future results, the current setup on both weekly and daily timeframes has sparked renewed optimism among crypto bulls.
Weekly MACD Holds Clues to Hidden Strength
One of the most telling signs of a potential reversal lies in Bitcoin’s weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram—a widely followed momentum indicator used to detect shifts in trend strength and direction.
Typically, when the MACD line crosses below the zero line, it signals bearish momentum. However, context matters. A bearish crossover without corresponding price weakness can often indicate a bear trap, where selling pressure fails to push prices lower and instead sets the stage for a sharp rebound.
In mid-February 2025, Bitcoin’s MACD did indeed flip negative, sparking fears of a prolonged downtrend. Yet, rather than collapsing, BTC found strong support at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) in March and has since reclaimed levels above $90,000—even as the MACD remains below zero.
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This pattern closely mirrors what unfolded in August and September 2024. At that time, persistent bearish MACD signals failed to break price support at the 50-week SMA. Ultimately, the indicator turned bullish by mid-October, confirming a powerful uptrend that propelled Bitcoin from $70,000 to over $100,000 by December—and eventually to $109,000.
The parallel today suggests that current bearish sentiment may again be misreading underlying market strength. If history rhymes, a similar confirmation—via a MACD crossover above zero—could signal the start of another major rally phase.
Death Cross That Wasn’t: How Bear Traps Fuel Bull Markets
Another compelling signal comes from the relationship between Bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Around four weeks ago, these two averages formed what’s known as a death cross—a bearish technical event where the shorter-term 50-day SMA drops below the longer-term 200-day SMA.
Traditionally, this pattern is interpreted as a warning of long-term downtrend acceleration. But in volatile markets like cryptocurrency, such signals can be misleading—especially when they occur near strong support zones.
In this case, instead of ushering in a deep correction, Bitcoin held steady around $75,000 and began a steady recovery. More importantly, the 50-day SMA has now started turning upward again and is poised to potentially cross back above the 200-day SMA in the coming weeks—a formation known as a golden cross.
Golden crosses are historically associated with the beginning of strong bull markets. And notably, this exact sequence played out in 2024: a death cross in August marked the final capitulation phase, followed shortly by a golden cross that ignited a breakout above $70,000 and ultimately fueled a rally past $109,000.
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With similar dynamics unfolding in early 2025, many analysts believe we could be witnessing the early stages of another explosive move upward.
Why Chart Patterns Matter—But Aren’t Everything
Technical analysis remains one of the most powerful tools for understanding market psychology and identifying high-probability turning points. Patterns such as MACD divergences, bear traps, death crosses, and golden crosses offer valuable insights into whether buying or selling pressure is truly dominant.
However, it’s crucial to remember that charts don’t operate in a vacuum. Macroeconomic factors—such as interest rate decisions, inflation data, regulatory developments, and global liquidity conditions—can override even the most convincing technical setups.
For instance, unexpected central bank tightening or geopolitical instability could dampen risk appetite and delay or derail a rally. Conversely, dovish monetary policy shifts or increased institutional adoption of digital assets could accelerate bullish momentum beyond technical expectations.
Therefore, while current chart structures are undeniably constructive for Bitcoin, traders should remain flexible and incorporate broader fundamental context into their decision-making.
Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
The following keywords have emerged as central to understanding Bitcoin’s current technical landscape:
- Bitcoin bull run
- BTC price prediction
- MACD indicator
- Golden cross vs death cross
- Bitcoin technical analysis
- Bear trap pattern
- Bitcoin support levels
- Crypto market momentum
These terms reflect both retail and institutional search intent, capturing growing interest in predictive tools and historical pattern recognition within cryptocurrency trading circles.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a bear trap in cryptocurrency trading?
A: A bear trap occurs when prices appear to break downward, triggering sell-offs, but then reverse sharply higher—“trapping” short sellers in losing positions. It often signals hidden buying pressure and potential bullish reversals.
Q: How reliable is the golden cross as a bullish signal for Bitcoin?
A: Historically, golden crosses have preceded major bull runs in Bitcoin, including those in 2016, 2020, and 2024. However, they work best when confirmed by rising volume and positive macro conditions.
Q: Can MACD predict Bitcoin price movements accurately?
A: MACD is effective at identifying momentum shifts and trend changes, especially when used alongside price action and other indicators. It’s not foolproof but adds significant value when part of a comprehensive strategy.
Q: What does it mean if BTC holds above $75K support?
A: Holding above $75,000 suggests strong demand at lower levels and increases the likelihood of higher highs. This level acted as a critical floor during prior corrections and may now serve as a springboard for new gains.
Q: Is another all-time high possible for Bitcoin in 2025?
A: Given the current technical setup—mirroring pre-rally conditions of late 2024—and continued adoption trends, many analysts believe Bitcoin could surpass its previous high of $109,000 in 2025.
Q: Should I rely solely on chart patterns for investment decisions?
A: No. While technical analysis provides valuable timing cues, it should be combined with fundamental research, risk management, and awareness of macroeconomic drivers for well-rounded decision-making.
Final Outlook: Bullish Volatility on the Horizon?
With two major technical patterns—the resilient weekly MACD and the impending golden cross—echoing those seen before Bitcoin’s historic run to $109,000, the stage appears set for renewed upward momentum.
Although caution is warranted in any volatile asset class, the evidence suggests that recent bearish signals may have been premature or even deceptive. Instead of marking the start of a bear market, current price action could represent consolidation ahead of another significant breakout.
For traders and investors alike, monitoring these indicators—and understanding their implications—can provide a strategic edge in navigating what may become one of Bitcoin’s most dynamic chapters yet.